2025 Washington State Election Round-Up – The Pendulum Swings….Again

By Jordan Royer, Vice President External Affairs, Pacific Merchant Shipping Association

The Washington statewide November 4th General Election results have finally been counted. Here are some key takeaways:

In Washington State we have all mail-in elections, which means that in close races it can take a week or more to figure out who won. And, unique to Seattle, the late ballots – those mailed or put into drop boxes on election day – tend to skew to the left. This election was no different. On election night, incumbent Seattle Mayor Harrell was ahead by seven points after the first count. He ended up losing by less than one point to Katie Wilson.

This election saw the pendulum swing back, as voters moved to the left and reversed the moderate trend of four years ago when moderate Democrats took over the City Council and Mayor’s office. At that time, moderates were brought in to fix the street disorder, and lawlessness that had taken over parks and neighborhoods during and after Covid. Most observers would say the street situation is much improved, highlighted by a brand new waterfront that draws thousands of visitors a day and connects to the Pike Place Market – by all accounts a spectacular achievement.

So why did Council President Sara Nelson and Mayor Bruce Harrell lose? And will the voters really embrace the same policies that led to lawlessness and camping in parks if these come back with a more left-leaning Mayor and Council? In the coming days there will be much discussion about how a relatively unknown Democratic Socialist managed to eke out a victory over an incumbent Mayor. Some will point to New York’s Mayoral results, electing a Democratic Socialist. Some will point to the Trump effect, where the left and the right are polarized to the edges of the political spectrum.

But what is striking is that the people brought in to solve a problem and who were successful at improving things still got kicked to the curb. The other irony here is that the main issue that Seattle voters focused on was affordability and the high cost of living. But many of the most progressive policies implemented over the last 15 years and championed by the left have had inflationary effects – expensive regulations, a higher minimum wage, increased business taxes, burdensome staffing requirements for restaurants, and so on. Will a new progressive City Council and Mayor double down on those policies and continue to raise taxes and the cost of living or will they examine the economic impacts of their policies and change course?

Housing supply is another challenge in Seattle – we need more of it. Council President Sara Nelson, who was soundly defeated by 26 points, tried to portray a recent rezone of the SODO industrial area for housing as a way to address the affordability crisis. PMSA, the Port of Seattle and others in the trade community opposed the rezone. The State’s Growth Management Hearings Board announced this week that the rezone ordinance was voided after a legal challenge from the Port. A bad week for Ms. Nelson. It should be noted that her opponent now Councilmember-Elect Dionne Foster campaigned against the rezone and for protecting Port Industrial lands.

As usual, Tacoma is slightly different than Seattle. Yes, the more left-leaning candidate won the Mayor’s race there. But Pierce County voters also elected JT Wilcox to the Tacoma Port Commission. Mr. Wilcox is the former Republican Leader in the Washington House of Representatives. He may actually be the only Republican elected in Seattle or Tacoma in this latest election. The other close election was for incumbent Tacoma Port Commissioner John McCarthy’s seat, where McCarthy survived a strong challenge.

All in all, the November 4th elections in Seattle followed national trends and signified movement to the left. But, how this will all look four years from now is anyone’s guess. One clear lesson for Seattle’s new Mayor and Council is that it is a lot easier to criticize elected officials than it is to be re-elected as one. For even when you do the job that the voters were asking for at the time of your first election, it may not be what they want to vote for when they decide again.