Outlook for Container Volumes in San Pedro Bay

In announcing its $3.4 billion budget for the upcoming 2026-2027 fiscal year, the Port of Los Angeles downgraded its outlook for container volumes over the next twelve months. After recording one of its busiest years ever, an in-house analysis determined that the nation’s largest container port should expect to handle 9.3 million loaded and empty TEUs in the fiscal year beginning on July 1. That would represent a seven percent year-over-year decline.

That outlook raises an interesting possibility. In total container volume, the neighboring Port of Long Beach trails the Port of Los Angeles by a fairly slender margin. In the eleven months in the soon-to-conclude 2025-2026 fiscal year, the Port of LA’s edge has been 2.5% or some 218,000 TEUs.

Exhibit A displays the total TEU tallies for the two San Pedro Bay ports in recent fiscal years, including the eleven months of FY 2025-2026 and the 9.3 million TEU volume expected in the next FY by the Port of LA. Absent a similar forecast from the Port of Long Beach, there is no way of calculating whether Long Beach might finally overtake the Port of LA as America’s top container gateway in the upcoming fiscal year.