West Coast Ports Face Sharp Declines in China Trade Amid Ongoing Tariff Disputes

Since President Trump’s inauguration in January, volumes of containerized trade to and from China have gyrated as tariff disputes between Beijing and Washington have defied resolution. Exhibit 8 traces the volume of containerized import tonnage arriving from China and Hong at the three principal USWC maritime gateways through this year’s first seven months. Despite the gains recorded in the most recent two, imports of goods originating in China and Hong Kong in July were down year-over-year by 8.5% at the San Pedro Bay Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, by 3.8% at the Port of Oakland, and by a sharp 30.0% at the Northwest Seaport Alliance Ports of Tacoma and Seattle.

As Exhibit 9 reveals, containerized exports from USWC ports to China and Hong Kong have seen similar fluctuations this year. More disturbing are the year-over-year comparisons. Export tonnage to China and Hong Kong this July were uniformly down from a year earlier, with the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach seeing a 49.5% drop in containerized export tonnage shipped to China/Hong Kong, while the Ports of Tacoma and Seattle recorded a 31.4% drop and the Port of Oakland sustained a 63.0% plunge in its containerized shipments to China and Hong Kong.

According to figures monitored by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, export prices for soybeans and other oil seeds had fallen precipitously since the summer of 2022. Similarly, export prices for wheat, rice and other grains have been sliding since the spring of that year. This year looks even more constrained. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, soybean buyers in China have not placed a single order for the U.S. commodity.