The Hidden Cost of Unpredictable Trade Policy

By Mario Cordero, CEO for the Port of Long Beach

In recent weeks, the Port of Long Beach announced the results of its new economic impact analysis that shows the millions of jobs and billions of dollars in wages that trade through our gateway supports across our nation.

Just hours before we released the findings, news broke that the U.S. and China had agreed to de-escalate surging tariffs by lowering the rates on Chinese imports to the U.S. to 30%, down from 145%, and U.S. exports to China to 10%, down from 125%.

This 90-day reprieve is both a positive sign and a perfect example of the uncertainty that is threatening the powerful engine that fuels our regional, state and national economy. That engine is the Port of Long Beach.

Trade through our Port supports some 2.7 million jobs across the U.S., provides $176 billion in income and contributes more than $300 billion to our nation’s Gross Domestic Product. Directly and indirectly, it touches every corner of the U.S. and every business sector: agriculture and natural resources; arts, media and entertainment; building and construction; business and finance; energy, the environment and utilities; fashion, furniture and design; engineering and architecture; health and medicine; hospitality and tourism; manufacturing and product development; marketing and sales; public services; retail and wholesale; and transportation, technology and innovation.

That's the 30,000-foot view of what’s at stake when trade policy between the world’s two most powerful economies mutates in the blink of an eye. Look closer, as Long Beach Mayor Rex Richardson explained, and see the mom trying to figure out whether the car seat for her newborn will cost $100 or $245.

While Americans are just beginning to feel the pain of these fluctuations in higher prices and fewer choices, the negative impacts are already evident at our Port. After starting 2025 as the No. 1 container port in the nation with four strong months  – much of it spurred by the anticipated tariff increases – we project cargo volume will drop as much as 30% for May compared with the same month last year. To put this in perspective, a 10% reduction in cargo volume at our Port represents a loss of 100,000 port-related jobs in California.

China is our top trading partner for both imports and exports moving through the Long Beach gateway. But China isn't our only trade partner. Asian nations make up nine of our top 10 trading partners for imports and all of our top 10 trading partners for U.S. exports.

Within days of the short-term China deal, we learned the U.S. is contemplating unilateral tariffs for some nations because there isn't time to negotiate trade deals with all our partners ahead of the U.S.’ own July 8 deadline. Uncertainty for American workers, businesses and families remains.

While policy changes overnight, recovery can be prolonged and problematic. If and when the dust settles, there is no guarantee that overseas producers and consumers who have found new markets to avoid tariffs will return to the U.S.

Ultimately, our success as a nation depends on stable, long-term trade policy. Despite the recent mercurial changes, we stand with rational optimism on the road forward, but we would be remiss not to address the risks to our economy.

The commentary, views, and opinions expressed by Mario Cordero are his own and do not reflect the views or positions of the Pacific Merchant Shipping Association. PMSA does not endorse, support, or make any representations regarding the content provided by any third party commentator.

About Mario Cordero

Mario Cordero, an international maritime industry leader, Long Beach resident and attorney, is Chief Executive Officer of the Port of Long Beach, California, named to the post by the Long Beach Board of Harbor Commissioners in 2017.

As Chief Executive Officer of the Port of Long Beach, Mr. Cordero reports to the Board and leads the Port’s Harbor Department staff of more than 500 with a budget of $761 million for the 2025 fiscal year. Inclusiveness and collaboration are hallmarks of Mr. Cordero’s leadership style, and due to both his Port and FMC leadership experience, he understands the needs of ocean carriers, terminal operators, cargo owners and other trade partners locally, nationally and around the globe.
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