Collapsing EV Exports & Thank Heavens for Scrap Paper

For some ports, boxes laden with scrap paper products are essential for maintaining their containerized export volumes. As Exhibit 8 reveals, shipments of scrap paper products (HS 4707) have lately accounted for between eight and nine percent of the containerized export tonnage shipped from mainland U.S. seaports. While down from a 12.3% share in 2016-2018, scrap paper remains a staple export commodity.  

However, as Exhibit 9 shows, scrap paper is a more significant factor in the containerized export trade at some ports than at others. HS 4707 has accounted for as much as 27.0% of all containerized export tonnage from Oakland and 17.7% at the San Pedro Bay Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Scrap paper has been much less a factor at the NWSA Ports of Tacoma and Seattle.

Collapsing EV Exports

Just a few years ago, when TESLA started building electric sedans at the old NUMMI factory in Fremont, much of what came off the production line was trucked over to the nearby Port of San Francisco and exported to markets abroad. TESLA’s business plans have changed in recent years, and the company has opened assembly facilities in China and Germany to better serve its Asian and European customers. As a consequence, the volume of EVs shipped from the Port of San Francisco has plunged, as Exhibit 11 indicates. (2025 estimate is based on export volumes through November.)